WEC 51 and Bellator 31

Bellator Fighting Championships 31 Breakdown

I chose this one first because there are only 2 fights that I am betting on.

Semi-finals for Bellator Women's 115 tournament

I believe I went undefeated in the first round for these fights (3-0)

Lisa Ward (+395) vs. Megumi Fujii (-495)

This is a re-match from 3 years ago when Megumi defeated Lisa Ward in the first round via Armbar. Lisa Ward is highly accomplished wrestler who uses Ground and Pound to defeat her opponents. I don't see Ward submitting Fujii, she can tag Fujii and if she does we shall see Fujii's chin. Lisa Ward, will avenge this loss and move on to the finals. Lisa Ward wins a Unam Decision (29-28)

Play: Lisa Ward +395 risk 1.4 Units

Jessica Aguilar (+165) vs. Zoila Frausto (-190)

I am a big fan of Zoila's however I don't know how good her ground game is. I think Aguilar can win this fight if she gets it to the ground. She had no trouble the first fight getting it to the ground. I think Aguilar wins the fight. I think the line is off. Zoila missed weight on her first attempt and admitted on her facebook that the weight cut was hard for her. I'm taking Aguilar. Aguilar wins Decision (30-27)

Play: Jessica Aguilar +165 risk 3 Units

WEC 51 Breakdown

Pablo Garza (+115) vs. Tiequan Zhang (-135)

Both are undefeated fighters.

Garza made it to the The Ultimate Fighter 12, was defeated in the qualifying round. He still has an undefeated pro record because those fights are considered amateur fights. Not much is known about Teiquan except that he is the first Chinese fighter in WEC and UFC. What is being reported is that he could be the building block for the Zuffa (UFC and WEC) expansion into Asia more specifically China. Pablo does not look like a pushover, however with the unknown factor with Zhang kind of scares me from betting. Zhang in the two fights I have been able to track down on google, has looked good with a Triangle Choke and TKO victory. I will pass on this fight. Too many unrealiable factors.

Play is: Pass!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Demetrious Johnson (-105) vs. Nick Peace (-115)

Play: Pass

Chad George (+260) vs. Antonio Banuelos (-320)

This is a battle of the fighters who lost to Scott Jorgensen. Banuelos trains with Chuck Liddell. I don't have a strong play on this fight. I think Chad George is a lot better than his first minute submission loss vs. Scott Jorgensen last time out.

Play: Pass

Tyler Toner (+125) vs. Diego Nunes (-145)

the line has dropped while typing this 25 cents on Toner. Which leads me to believe that and add to the point that I think Toner could be the right side. Nunes is a BJJ purple belt under Team Nogueira and Blackhouse Gym. Toner in his last fight showed how vicious his elbows are. Both of these fighters have never been finished, (either Knocked out, or submitted) I can see Toner winning a close decision. I think Toner wins this fight.

Play: Tyler Toner risk 2 Units (+125)

Chris Horodecki (-155) vs. Ed Ratcliff (+135)

I think fight can be an easy fight for Horodecki if he gets the fight to the ground. If decides to stand and trade with Ed Ratcliff he could get tagged by Ed's unique striking. Ed is also coming off of a 9 month layoff. His last fight was a loss to Donald Cerrone back last December. I think Horodecki wins this fight via submission. 2nd Round.

Chris Horodecki (-155) to win 3 Units

Cole Province (+295) vs. Mike Brown (-355)

Its hard to bet against Mike Brown. Who's on a losing skid (2 of his last 3) I think he gets back on track. He looks to be fighting a (6-1) fighter who looks to be a one dimensional submission specialist.

Mike Brown gets back on track with the win. Because of the juice though, I think I will pass

Play: Pass

Leonard Garcia (+180) vs. Mark Hominick (-195)

This is the first fight of the night on Versus @ 8pm CST. Garcia is a very exciting fighter. However he has a tendency to throw caution to the wind and let his hands go. If you have seen his last two fights with George Roop and "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung you will see what I mean. Garcia is trained by Greg Jackson, who is the Yoda of MMA trainers. If he, Greg Jackson, can't get Garcia to listen, then who can? If Garcia fights a smart fight he can win. If he swings for the fences Hominick will pick him apart. Hominick has a good combination of both Striking and effective Grappling: He has 8 wins via (T)KO and 7 wins by submission. I lean towards Hominick but I cannot bet this fight. I see the fight as being way too close to call. Too many unknowns.

Play: Pass

Chan Sung "The Korean Zombie" Jung (-270) vs. George Roop (+230)

I am a huge fan of the Korean Zombie, greatest nickname in MMA? Hell yea. I saw two fights of his before he came into the WEC, and he never gives in. He was armbarred so tight and was able to get out of it. I swear his elbow was dislocated. George Roop is no pushover though. He went toe-to-toe with Leonard Garcia last time out and the fight was scored a controversial draw. Chan Sung is a great striker who has cardio for days, and his grappling while underutilized is very impressive. I think this fight is a toss-up. It could really go either way. I think George Roop will win a very close decision (29-28). Because the fight is a toss-up I will play it small.

Play: George Roop (+230) risk 2 Units

Miguel Angel Torres (-420) vs. Charlie Valencia (+375)

I think Miguel Torres is awesome as a person as a fighter he is amazing. However he has struggled his last to fights being submitted and knocked out respectively. Valencia is entering this fight as this is the biggest fight of his career.

I think Valencia pulls the upset

Play: Charlie Valencia (+375) risk 3 Units

Jamie Varner (-139) vs. Donald Cerrone (+129)

to put it simply I think Varner has gotten into Donald's head with the pre-fight trash talk. I think Varner has better striking and better stand up. I think Varner wins a 3 round decision.

Play: Jamie Varner (-139) to win 3 Units

Manny Gamburyan (+500) vs. Jose Aldo (-600)

Upset Alert. I think Aldo while he is very good, in MMA because the sport is every evolving, no one stays on top for a long time. There are always new challengers. I think Manny Gamburyan has the experience, the grappling, and most importantly the striking power to knock out Aldo.

Aldo has never seriously had his chin tested. Gamburyan because of his frame, has a lot of power behind what he throws. In order for Gamburyan to win, I think he has to knock out Aldo in the first two rounds. He cannot let Aldo fire those hellacious leg kicks that nearly crippled Urijah Faber. Left him looking black and blue on each leg. To give you a perspective of just exactly how bad the leg kicks were on Urijah Faber, he had to be carried to his corner in the last two rounds. He couldn't even walk. Those are Hellacious leg kicks.

Having said that, I think Gamburyan will KO Aldo and become the new WEC Featherweight Champion.

Play: Manny Gamburyan +500 risk 2 Units.

Play it small people. There are no locks in any sport. Play with your head. Enjoy the fights. Check out the WEC though, they very rarely if ever have boring fights. Lot of action with the lower weight classes.

Happy Hunting.

UFC 119 Breakdown

Feels so good to be back and I got a good feeling about tonight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

First fight of the night I think we might have a bargain on our hands here.

Sean Mccorkle (+170) vs. Mark Hunt (-200)

I really like this play on Sean Mccorkle. He is Undefeated fighter, he's taller, he's got a hell of a reach, and he looked cut at the weigh-ins. Mark Hunt is coming off well over a year layoff, he is past his prime which was in Pride 4-8 years ago when he beat the likes of Mirko Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva. Both Split Decisions. The only reason he took this fight is because he had one fight left on the contract that Zuffa/UFC bought out when they purchased Pride. I don't see much for him. Sean Mccorkle needs to get this fight to the ground. Hunt is a one dimensional Kickboxer. I think Mccorkle has everything to gain and nothing to lose, Hunt has nothing to gain as it is unlikely the UFC will re-sign him no matter if he wins. Sean Mccorckle wins first Submission.

Sean Mccorkle +170 Risk 3 Units

TJ Grant (-175) vs. Julio Paulino (+155)

Pass

Steve Lopez (-105) vs. Waylon Lowe (-115)

Lean to Waylon but I am going to pass

Pat Audinwood (+240) vs. Thiago Tavares (-280)

pass, but sidebar, Audinwood wore Spongebob Squarepants boxers at the weigh-ins. Noteworthy.

Now to the Free Prelims on Spike TV

Joey Beltran (+132) vs. Matt Mitrione (-142)

Its hard to go against Joey Beltran,he's won his first two fights in the UFC vs. Rolles Gracie and vs. Tim Hague. Both at underdog prices respectively of, +750, +200 respectively.

Mitrione has some serious power, but I really like the "Mexicutioner" Joey Beltran in this spot. Joey wins first round KO, +132

Joey Beltran Risk 2 Units +132

CB Dollaway (-290) vs. Joe Doerksen (+260)

Is there a more overrated fighter in the UFC than CB Dollaway. I just don't think Dollaway is all that good. He is very susceptible to submissions and his only two losses have come via submissions. Joe Doerksen, is a wily veteran who has 33 wins by submission. He showed a lot tapping out Tom Lawlor back at UFC 113 in May. I think Doerksen catches Dollaway in a sub in round 1.

Play: Joe Doerksen (+260) Risk 3 Units

My favorite fight of the Night starts the Main Card

Melvin Guillard (-135) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+125)

Melvin Guillard looked absoultely insane in his last fight, I think the change to Greg Jackson's camp has him on a whole new level. I think Melvin Guillard is the play. small play due to variance, to win 1 Unit

Play Melvin Guillard -135 to win 1 Unit

Matt Serra +120 vs. Chris Lytle (-130)

I love Matt Serra in this fight, wow he is good. but I can bring myself to bet on this fight, both are awesome and legit, both have made me money this year, think I will kick back relax and enjoy this re-match from UFC Finale 4 with Serra picking up the split decision victory and one of the best upsets in UFC History over Georges St. Pierre.

Lean to Matt Serra, but will inevitably pass.

Sean Sherk (+190) vs. Evan Dunham (-210)

I think Dunham will show just how slow Sherk has become. Sherk hasn't fought since April 2009 when he got owned by current UFC Champion Frankie Edgar. A year off in MMA is 3-4 off in football, the game speed is just too much to duplicate in real time fights. I think Evan Dunham outstrikes Sherk and wins this fight via Unam Decision.

Evan Dunham (-230) to win 5 Units

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+150)vs. Ryan Bader (-170)

Its amazing what one fight will do to a fighter even with the last name of Nogueira. Although the judges scored his last fight vs. Jason Brillz for him, alot in the MMA community thought he lost that fight. He looked slow, inattentive, and could never establish his rhythm vs. a Wrestler. I guarentee if Nogueira doesn't look flat but still wins a decision vs Jason Brillz, this line is him a favorite -200. Ryan Bader, decorated wrestler from Arizona State, is taking a huge step up from his last win vs. Keith Jardine. I think Nogueira is a worth while play. Nogueira has only been finished once. Nogueira has the better experience, better Boxing, and with working on improving his wrestling defense with Mark Munoz, I think Nogueira can and will outpoint Bader on his way to a Decision victory.

Play: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+150) risk 2 Units

Mirko Cro Cop (+225) vs. Frank Mir (-245)

Personal feelings aside, Everyone loves Frank Mir in this fight. I don't, Frank has a hell of an ego on him. I think he will try and strike with Mirko who is a decorated kickboxer. I want Mirko to resurrect his Left Leg, Cemetery, one last tim to knock Frank Mir's head and hair right off. I don't the whole speel about his eye injury. He looked fine at the weigh-ins. Frank Mir does have power in his hands, he dropped Cheik Kongo with a powerful left hand. I'm not convnced that Frank Mir can get this fight to the ground using wrestling, Cro Cop has a very underrated sprawl, and has been known to use it very efficiently. Mir gets fight to the ground via strikes, or he gets taken down. I don't see either happening in this fight. Cro Cop wins via vintage Left Head Kick KO of th century. You heard it here first.

Mirko Cro Cop (+195) Risk 7 Units. Don't go too crazy.


Happy Hunting

UFC Fight Night 22

Brian Foster (-270) vs. Forrest Petz (+230)

This fight seems to be a mismatch on paper. Brian Foster is a highly decorated wrestler who trains out of the HIT Squad camp near St. Louis Missouri. Trains along side Matt Hughes and Robbie Lawler. Forrest Petz has showed a knack for not being able to defend against wrestlers and this continues tomorrow. Brian Foster's improved stand up and good wrestling will dictate where this fight takes place. Because of this I see Brian Foster winning via Unam Decision.

Play is: Brian Foster -270 to win 2 Units

Anthony Waldburger (+170) vs. David Mitchell (-210)

David Mitchell was a play given to me by Mike Hook about how good David Mitchell is. Anthony Waldburger hasn't fought in over a year. Big disadvanatage.

Play: David Mitchell -210 to win 5 Units

Rick Attonito (+160) vs. Rafael Natal (-185)

No Play. Natal is getting way too much love.

Tomasz Drwal (-165) vs. Dave Branch (+145)

Dave Branch I think is the right play in this spot. Branch ran into a Hurricane named Gerald Harris. Branch we will respond well off of his loss. I think he will sub Drwal who has inferior skills on the ground. Not to mention Tomasz is coming off of a nasty heel hook loss to Rousimar Palhares where his knee and ankle got jacked up pretty bad. I can't recommend a play on a guy who might be a little shaky after that last loss.

Play is: Dave Branch +145 risk 3 Units

Jared Hammann (+190) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (+165)

No play pass.

Yves Edwards (+110) vs. John Gunderson (-130)

Lean to Gunderson, Yves Edwards does not fight smart. He could have lost his last fight in Bellator because he wanted to stand and bang against a better standup fighter.

Ross Pearson (-255) vs. Cole Miller (+215)

I like Cole Miller. Think Ross Pearson is a little overrated. I think Cole Miller can get this fight to the ground. If he does, I think he wins this fight.

Play: Cole Miller +215 risk 3 UnitsG

Gleison Tibau +120 vs. Jim Miller -140

Lean to Jim Miller but will pass on this one.

Co-Main Event

Efrain Escudero (-175) vs. Charles Oliveira (+155)

Charles is definitely the play. Efrain missed weight by 4 pounds. Big time angle I love to play. I think Oliveira will want to take Efrain into deep waters in this fight and pick him apart until he knocks out Escudero late in the 2nd Round. Efrain needs to win this fight early. I don't see him winning a decision.

Play: Charles Oliveira +155 Risk 5 Units

Rousimar Palhares (+190) vs. Nate Marquardt (-230)

I like Palhares in this spot. I think Marquardt is overlooking him. If he is not careful Palhares will be looking rip off a limb. Palhares is pretty stocky and short for this weight class so expect him to want to win this one early. I think he will get Nate in a nasty heel hook and I see him tapping out in th 1st Round due to Heel Hook

Play: Rousimar Palhares(+190) risk 5 Units

Happy Hunting.

Bellator 28 Thoughts and Plays

Once again all lines are courtesy of 5 Dimes, sign up with them.

There are 4 listed fights that have lines for tonight.

I have thoughts on all and plays on 2.

Carey Vanier (+160) vs. Rich Clementi (-195)

Rich Clementi has a long record of fighting stretched over 55 fights. Carey Vanier is an up and coming fighter who trains with Greg Jackson's camp. I like Carey Vanier in this fight, I see him taking down Clementi and finishing on the ground with some ground and pound

Play is: Carey Vanier +160 risk 3.2 Units


Georgi Karakhanyan (-250) vs. Anthony Leone (+180)

I see Georgi using superior ground skills to sub Leone via Armbar or Triangle.

Play: No Play

Matt Horwich (+135) vs. Eric Schambari (-165)

I really like Matt Horwich in this spot, he did something no other fighter has been able to do, submit Thales Leites. I think Matt Horwich is the better ground fighter and will execute his gameplan better than Schambari who has at times been really sloppy on the ground.

Play: Matt Horwich +135 risk 3.2 Units

Eric Larkin (-460) vs. Marcus Andrusa (+365)

Good MMA/Boxing Oddsmaker Joey Oddessa thinks this Eric Larkin line should be near -1300. Because of his elite level wrestling. I am in complete agreement. I will take this play to win 10 Units. Eric wins via Unam Decision.

Play: Eric Larkin (-460) to win 10 Units

Happy Hunting

UFC 118 Review

Top 4 performances from UFC 118

1) Frankie Edgar, wow, he has BJ Penn's number, he has beaten him twice both decisively.
I am curious to see how well he does vs. Gray Maynard in the the re-match. I think his wrestling has improved drastically. Will he be so easy to takedown again?

2) Demian Maia, he did gas, however he wrestled so very well vs. Mario Miranda who has accomplished: Grapplers Quest champion, South American wrestling champion, Four-time Brazilian wrestling champion, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. I don't know who Maia trained wrestling with but he did an amazing job with it. Much improved.

3) Nate Diaz.
Wow, when he establishes his jab and range he picks you apart with what people call "pitter-patter" but getting hit in the same spot consistently especially in the case of opening a cut up and keep picking at it does some serious damage. I think he has a serious chance to contend in the Welterweight division, would like to see him face winner of Dan Hardy vs. Carlos Condit.

4) Joe Lauzon
What a dominate performance, best two minute one sided pounding I have seen in a while. Amazing to see exactly how he fights at nearly 100%.

Disappointments

1) BJ Penn he fought worse than he did the first time vs. Frankie Edgar. His cornermen offered no help or instruction. BJ needs to get a better camp or he will get passed by all of the other lightweights.

2) Kenny Florian, he just cannot win a big fight to save his life. That makes 3 big fights. This loss puts him in a rough spot, he's not quite a gatekeeper but he's not quite a title contender still. Interesting.

3) James Toney, did anyone expect anything different?

4) Amilcar Alves, you're facing an elite level wrestler, do they not train takedown defense in Brazil? I have noticed a trend of Brazilians not being able to avoid takedowns? Maybe he shall improve the next fight.


Conclusions

1) Randy Couture got his Black Belt in NO Gi Catch Wrestling where he trains at Extreme Couture, imagine how many they would have to give out for just tapping James Toney? to quote John Morgan from MMAjunkie.com

2) Wrestling is still the most important tool to have in MMA at this point. Look at the winners from UFC 118 who used wrestling, Mike Pierce, Gray Maynard, Randy Couture, Demian Maia, Joe Lauzon, Nik Lentz, Frankie Edgar, Nate Diaz and Greg Soto. All used wrestling to win their fights. Impressive.

3) Is Demian Maia immediately back in the title contention if Chael Sonnen wins the re-match vs. Anderson Silva?????????

Please comment.

UFC 118 Preview

Currently updating my overall record.

Here are two plays already locked and loaded for Saturday

Nick Osipczak (-140) @ 5 Dimes. vs. Greg Soto +120

In my opinion big mis match.

Nick Osipczak -140 is the play I played it to win 25 Units, I really like the play.

Mario Miranda (+160) vs. Damien Maia (-210)

I like Mario Miranda think he will dominate the stand up game and knock out Damien Maia

Mario Miranda +160 Risk 4 Units

UFC 118 Preview that you demand.

I will do my best to keep the quality up, I am currently going through a pretty nasty cold. Forgive me if there isn't enough detail.

All lines are courtesy of 5Dimes.com also please check out my MMA Betting Blog

http://bettingmma.blogspot.com

Amilcar Alves (+243) vs. Mike Pierce (-285)

No video is available that i can track down for Amilcar Alves, He is (11-1) avenging his only loss last time out back in December via nasty KO (Knee). He is coming off of a 9 month layoff which is a significant drawback. Mike Pierce has only lost 3 times to Nathan Coy, Jon Fitch, and Mark Munoz, notice a trend here??? All three are decorated collegiate wrestlers. Pierce knows how to use stifling wrestling to put people on their butts and dominate them for 3 rounds. Alves does train with current WEC featherweight Champion Jose Aldo Jr. I would be very hard to recommend a play to anyone without having any tape on the guy we are betting on. I will personally play him, and if you want to follow along that is fine. However, I am looking out for those of you who expect me to produce consistent winners, I cannot recommend a play on Amilcar Alves or Mike Pierce., I will play him personally for 2 Units, but not count it as an official play.

The fight itself, Amilcar does have 3 wins via KO and 4 via Sub, 2 of those submissions have come via Armbar which generally involves fighting off your back. I think Amilcar Alves takes this fight via some sort of KO Round 2.

Once again I re-iterate not an official play.

Play: Pass

Nick Osipczak (-200) vs. Greg Soto (+170)

I said yesterday on Gil Alexander's show, Betting Dork that I liked Nick O as high as -200. I see just a complete mismatch on paper and the line I was able to get earlier this week was -140. I am sorry if you missed the boat on this. If you were unable to get it at a smaller price, I recommend a small play on Nick O, I am playing him to win 25 Units @ -140. Best line I see currently is -175 at SBGGlobal

Play: Nick O, if you didn't get him at -140-160 play small say 1-2 Units, I am playing him @-140 to win 25 Units.

Dan Miller (-250) vs. John Salter (+210)

This play really pains me. I like Dan Miller as a fighter, The dude has fought nothing but the best the last three fights in Michael Bisping, Chael Sonnen, and Demian Maia and not one of those three were able to finish him. He is a gamer. I hope I am wrong, but I think Dan Miller's one dimensional ground game will be his downfall. John Salter is a 2007 NAIA Collegiate Champion wrestler, who I believe possesses enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing. I don't believe Salter would want to play into the hands of Miller and take him down but I could be wrong. I think If Salter fights the smart fight, he will pick Dan Miller apart on his feet. I think John Salter is the winner via Unam Decision 30-27 2x, 29-28 1x. Unfortunately with this loss Dan Miller will most likely be released from the UFC. I think Miller needs this as he needs to re-tool his stand up game.

Play: John Salter +210 to win 3 Units.

On to the Spike Preliminary card,

Nick Lentz (+104) vs. Andre Winner (-114)

I am not going to lie, I really like Nick Lentz in this spot. Nick Lentz is a decorated NCAA D1 from University of Minnesota, he trains @ the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy. I think Nik Lentz will use his wrestling fully to his advantage and put Andre Winner on his back for all three rounds. Andre Winner is another one of these British fighters who need to learn takedown defense.

Nik Lentz Decision

Play: Nik Lentz +104 risk 5 Units

Gabe Ruediger (+295) vs. Joe Lauzon (-325)

This fight has nothing but bad blood written all over it. Both of these guys were on The Ultimate Fighter Season 5. Gabe Ruediger missed weight and passed out trying to make weight on the show and ended up being kicked out of the house. He has rattled off 6 straight wins and it would appear to have re-focused his life and MMA as being serious. Joe Lauzon has a lot of problems mentally coming into this fight. His brother Dan has been having trouble with Joe as they had a dispute to where Dan started training no longer with his brother. Gabe played some significant psychological warfare @ the weigh-ins today when he presented Joe with a Cake that said," Sorry for your loss." On TUF show Gabe was eating cake when he heard the announcement that he was fighting in 48 hours. I think Gabe uses his ground game to win this fight on the ground via submission Round 2.

Play: Gabe Ruediger +295 risk 3 Units

Onto the Main Card

Marcus Davis (+180) vs. Nate Diaz (-195)

This fight shows me a lot of intrigue. Marcus Davis ironically,a former pro boxer, boxed on the last card before the Boston Garden was revamped and re-named. I think this is the closest thing Marcus has of being the home town boy considering he is from Bangor Maine. Nate Diaz is talented boxer and even better BJJ brown belt under Cesear Gracie, having said all of that, I think Marcus Davis needs to make this fight a knockdown drag out brawl. Which he is very good at mind you. Marcus Davis can survive on the ground vs. Nate Diaz, but he may not want to set up camp, as Diaz is known for his excellent ground game. I think Marcus Davis' makes this a stand up battle for 3 rounds and eeks out a close 29-28 Decision.

Play: Marcus Davis +180 risk 3 Units

Kenny Florian (-150) vs. Gray Maynard (+140)

this fight intrigues me. I feel like Joey Kanish from Rounders, I know all of the angles for this fight but I honestly don't have any stones to play them. I have counted out the last 8 times there were number #1 contenderships in the UFC for all 5 weight divisions. Recently at UFC 117 there were two fights, Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves and Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson that the winner would be next in line to get a title shot. Both went to a decision. Back in January at UFC 109, it was Chael Sonnen vs. Nate Marquardt for the #1 contendership for the Middlewight Title. Ended in a decision. UFC 114 Rampage Jackson vs. Rashad Evans Number contendership for the Light Heavyweight Title, ended in a................Decision. UFC 113, Josh Koschek vs. Paul Daley number one contendership for 170lb Title ended in a............you guessed it a decision. So did Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy, Clay Guida vs. Diego Sanchez, and Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard. I think it a proven fact that fighters who know if they win, they get a shot at the title fight a little safer and try not to make any mistakes. For what its worth, Gray Maynard has won 7 of his 9 fights due to decision, the last two being split decisions. Kenny Florian has only won 1 fight due to a decision vs. Roger Huerta. As far as a side goes, I hate to go against Kenny Florian or an undefeated fighter in Gray Maynard, I lean to Gray Maynard. I will play both sides to win via Decision

Play: Gray Maynard and Kenny Florian by Decision as Props risk 4 Units each

Maynard via Decision +194 risk 4 Units

Florian via Decision +235 risk 4 Units

no official side play.

Next

Mario Miranda (+190) vs. Demian Maia (-210)

Even with all of the wacky line movement for this fight, I still like Mario Miranda, I think Miranda will win this fight bottom line. Maia is a very great one dimensional grappler, but I think Miranda can control where this fight takes place. Because of this, I think Miranda will pick apart Maia standing, I see this fight ended with Maia being knocked out or him out-pointing Maia and winning a Unam Decision.

Play: Mario Miranda +190, I got him @ +160 earlier this week for 4 Units, I think I will double down on that + 2 Units. 6 more Units @ +185. Total play of 10 Units on Mario Miranda

I also played Mario Miranda 5 Units each on him to win via TKO (KO) and him to win via Decision.

Props:

Mario Miranda to win via T(KO) +440 risk 5 Units

Demian Maia to win via Decision +422 risk 5 Units

Co-Main Event

James Toney (+475) vs. Randy Couture (-560)

Simply this: If Randy Couture fights smart, it will be a very easy night for him, you do not learn great Wrestling takedown defense in 6 months. James Toney looked like a black version of me at the weigh-ins. Fat, got love handles on top of his love handles. I think he's in for the paycheck and nothing more. I am not touching either of these guys straight up wagers.

I am however making a few nice prop wagers on Randy Couture

Play:

Randy Couture to win via T (KO) +196 risk 8 Units

Randy Couture to win via Submission -125 to win 10 Units

Bottom Line: Randy Couture takes this fight to the mat he wins anyway he wishes.

Frankie Edgar (+258) vs. BJ Penn (-285)

Frankie Edgar has a great upset when he defeated BJ Penn back in Abu Dhabi @ UFC 112. I thought he did a good job of stick and moving. I am not going to lie, I still like Frankie Edgar in this spot.

I see him utilizing a similiar gameplan, let's see how well BJ Penn can cut off the ring and not allow Edgar to get those angles.

Frankie Edgar wins via Decision

Play: Frankie Edgar +258 risk 3 Units

Remember my 1 Unit = 5 Bucks

Take it for what its worth.

Bellator 26

All lines courtesy of 5 Dimes.com

Tyler Stinson (-155) vs. Steve Carl (+125)

Ah this is a battle of the two guys who lost to Dan Hornbuckle in the 170lb Tourney last year. I think the oddsmakers don't really know who is going to win. Maybe I can shed a little light on this. Stinson's 6 losses, 4 of them have come via the same submission hold the triangle choke. Steve Carl does have one win via Triangle Choke. I think Steve Carl is the play in this spot.

Steve Carl +125 risk 2 Units

Zak Cummings (-320) vs. Rudy Bears (+260)

Zak Cummings has already beaten Rudy Bears once.

Staying away from both of them.

Play: Pass.

Jose Vega (EV) vs. Danny Tims (-120)

Jose Vega and Danny Tims have already fought in Sturgis South Dakota less than two years ago.

Jose Vega has already beatten Danny Tims due to submission, and I see the same thing happening in this fight.

I like Jose Vega.

Jose Vega risk 3 Units EV

Aisling Daly (-105) vs. Lisa Ward (-115)

Aisling has not fought in over 9 months she had to fly over from Ireland to take this fight, I like Lisa Ward, I think her wrestling will be the big difference, I see Lisa winning this on the ground either with strikes or a submission.

Lisa Ward to win 5 Units -115

Alexey Oleinik (-150) vs. Mike Hayes (+130)

i think this line is a just a little off.

I really like Alexey Oleinik in this spot. i think his huge submisison game which have garnered 23 of his 27 wins will come into effect vs. Mike Hayes who is a one dimensional striker.

Alexey Oleinik wins due to submission, I'll say Heel Hook round 2.

Alexey Oleinik -150 to win 4 Units

Strikeforce: Houston

Lines are used courtesy of 5Dimes.com, IMO the best book for MMA

Jason Riley (+885) vs. Daniel Cormier (-1350)

For those of you followed me last friday for my KOTC cage, play yes this is the same Daniel Cormier that won the KOTC Heavyweight Title, last friday. Last week we got him around -350------385 wow, I am thinking the oddsmakers got smoked last friday with action on him, for the line to jump 10 dollars, never thought I would hear that. Is it sad that I think the line should be higher? Jason Riley is a tomato can compared to what Cormier faced last week. This is one of the few times where I agree that this line is fairly accurate. I think Cormier wins this one very very easily, however There is no way I will ever recommend someone to lay this kind of wood, in MMA.

Play is: Pass

Jorge Patino (+240) vs. Andre Galvao (-285)

This is an interesting matchup, both are very accomplished BJJ black belts with Andre Galvao winning Pan -AM Gold multiple times. I think Galvao wins this fight on the ground, I think Jorge Patino wins this fight with his stand-up. I am curious to see what Jorge's gameplan is, If I am him, I keep this fight standing, If he keeps it standing he has a shot, I think Galvao is very much a one-trick pony with his BJJ background, I don't think his striking is very crisp.I am thinking a small play on Jorge Pantino is the right side. Jorge is coming off of nearly a year layoff.

Jorge Pantino +240 risk 3 Units

Bobby Lashley (-600) vs. Chad Griggs (+450)

This fight seems like Strikeforce is handing Lashley another tomato can, however Chad Griggs although he hasn't fought in over a year, doesn't seem like the typical can. I see with his stand-up he might give Lashley some problems. I cannot at this time make either side a play. If anything, I would say to sit back and watch the fight, I see Griggs might pull the upset, but I will not make any plays.

Play: Pass

Jorgel Gurgel (+250) vs. KJ Noons (-300)

Jorge Gurgel is coming off over a 9 month layoff, which is significant. However, KJ is coming off of a split decision win over Conor Huen. KJ is a pure striker, he has a significant boxing background and I believe is the only person to finish Nick Diaz. KJ Noons missed weight a 1/4 of a pound, Jorge Gurgel, told him not to worry about it, so he didn't have to re-try again. I think Gurgel knows he wins this fight if it gets to the ground. KJ has not one a single fight on the ground via submission. I think If Jorge fights smart this fight, like he said he would, getting back to his BJJ roots, he can and will win this fight. This might be the livliest dog on the board but I will take Jorge via submission Round 2, either Guilltione Choke or Kimura.

Play: Jorge Gurgel +250 risk 4 Units

Tim Kennedy (+190) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (-225)

TIm Kennedy, is a former Green Beret in the US Army. Jacare has some of the best takedowns for a Brazilian I have seen. I think Tim Kennedy needs to sprawl and brawl to win this fight, I don't see him subbing Jacare, I can see him knocking out Jacare, or out-pointing him on the feet. Jacare gassed very badly last fight vs. Joey Villasenor, I had money on Jacare so that kind of got me worried. I think If this fight goes into the later round, 4 and 5 the advantage will be purely for Tim Kennedy. I think Tim Kennedy knocks out Jacare. In Round 4. to Win the Strikeforce Middleweight Championship

Play is: Tim Kennedy +190 risk 4 Units

Main Event

King Mo Lawal (-400) vs. Rafael Cavalcante (+325)

I think this is a big mismatch on paper, I don't think Cavalcante has enough of wrestling takedown defense to keep the fight standing, not to mention Cavalcante also has had issues in the past with gassing. Because of this I see King Mo Lawal winning this fight via 5 Round Decision to re-tain his Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship. I am waiting on this line, I am hoping to get -350----375, if I can get that range I will play it, if not I will pass.

Play: Stay Tuned.

Good luck and Happy Hunting!!!!

Bellator 25 Review

i will try to make this short and sweet as I have to get my Strikeforce: Houston blog up fairly soon.

First fight, Taylor vs. Shonie Carter
Went exactly how I thought I would, Shonie was not all there mentally. Taylor won Via Unam Decision.

Plus +12 Units

Scott Barrett vs. Damian Grabowksi

There are a lot of questions coming out of this fight, 1) Which fight were the judges watching, 2) When did strikes from the bottom ever win you rounds, 3) Did the pro Damian Polish crowd have anything to do with the Judges Decision?

A disappointing loss that I thought we won, but no need fretting it any longer.

- 6 Units

Cole Konrad vs. Rogent Lloret

I am just now seeing this fight, I understand Cole Konrad won via Unam Decision. Cole Konrad used his wrestling, much the same way Scott Barrett did in the previous heavyweight fight for Bellator.

-3 Units

Zoila Frausto vs. Jessica Pene

I thought Zoila was the best bet on the boar, and I was right. She won a lop sided decision 30-27. Very good to see that.

+ 20 Units

Kenny Robertson vs. John Kolosci

Kenny won via submission due to a Americana in the 2nd Round

+3 Units

Kevin Knabijan vs. Brian Gassaway

Brian won a controversial decision

-2.6 Units

Brad Blackburn vs. Dan Hornbuckle

I thought we had one with Brad, but Dan was able to overcome a first round knockdown to win a Unam Decision 29-28.

-6 Units


Overall Record (3-4) +17.4 Units

A good night with a losing record.

Bellator 25

Torrance Taylor -115 vs. Shonie Carter

This fight would be a pass for me normally, but I looked a little deeper, Shonie Carter missed weighed by 6 Pounds. He is fighting in front of his home crowd, I don't personally know how he was able to get sanctioned for this fight, he fought no more than three weeks and suffered a nasty head kick KO in New Hampshire. I think Torrance Taylor can and will win this fight. I see this fight as Shonie Carter just getting a paycheck. Which is a sad sight. Profitable for us though.

Torrance Taylor -115 to win 12 Units

Scott Barrett (+410) vs. Damian Grabowski (-565)

I think Scott has better stand-up than Damian, and once again I cannot stress this enough, a relative unknown fighter is nearly a 6 to 1 favorite. I think Scott knocks this guy out in the 1st. With a wrestling background, I see Scott winning this fight.

Scott Barrett +410 Risk 6 Units

Rogent Lloret (+175)vs. Cole Konrad (-215)

I think Cole Konrad's lack of gas tank, and Rogent's submission skills can win him this fight. I like Rogent, at a +170 price.

Rogent Lloret +170 risk 3 Units

Zoila Frausto -225 vs. Jessica Pene +175

i think Zoila Frausto at -225 is a gift. She has explosive Muay Thai, has never looked in better shape and trains with Jorge Gurgel, her BF, and who is ironically fighting in just two days for Strikeforce. Jessica Pene is coming off of 11 month layoff. Zoila is the fresher fighter, with better stand up, I think she wins this fight.

Zoila Frausto -225 to win 20 Units

Kenny Robertson -155 vs. John Kolosci +125

I think this fight is Kenny's to win, he's an undefeated fighter who has a lot of potential, vs. John Kolosci who's fame came from fighting on TUF season 6. I like Kenny to win.

Kenny Robertson -155 to win 3 Units

Kevin Knabjian -130 vs. Brian Gassaway +100

Both of these guys are coming off long layoffs, however I will go against the fighter who has been off 2 years. I think Kevin Knabijan is coming into this fight and taking it more seriously.

Kevin Knabijan -130 to win 2 Units

If you bet MMA I think you should get down on this play.

Dan Hornbuckle tweeted and MMArising confirmed that today, the day of Weigh-ins he is 205 pounds, he fights at 170, this is worthy of a bet based upon the insane weight cut Dan has to do. Bet on Brad Blackburn risk 6 Units +290

Remember my 1 Unit = 5 Bucks.

Adjust accordingly my post is also at Pregame.com

http://pregame.com/forums/forums/t/128537.aspx

WEC 50 Review

i am not going to make any excuses, I had a losing card, WE did have a 4 fights I believe go to very close decisions that we came up on the short end of the stick.

The Shane Roller- Anthony Pettis fight was just amazing.

Wow I never thought I would see Anthony Pettis outgrapple Shane Roller.

Time for Bellator 25.

WEC 50 Betting Breakdown including my Plays

Here are my full WEC 50 thoughts and plays

All lines used are 5dimes.com if you want to sign up let me know and I get a little referal bonus.

First fight of the night is

Danny Castillo (-215) vs. Dustin Poirier (+170)

This is an interesting scrap to start the fight. Danny Castillo trains at Team Alpha Male, with Urijah Faber, Joseph Benavidez and Chad Mendes. A great fight team full of great WEC fighters. This is Dustin's WEC debut he trains with noted UFC fighter Tim Credeur. Tim is very high on Dustin who sports a spotless (7-0) record. Danny Castillo has lost his last two fights to Anthony Pettis and Shane Roller who ironically are fighting for the Number #1 contendership for the 155 title. Dustin is a high level BJJ guy trains with Credeur who is I believe the first BJJ black belt in Louisiana. This fight feels like a pass for me. I don't know just how good Dustin is with his BJJ skills and how much Danny C has learned from his last loss. I think Danny is on his way out with a loss and I think he needs to find a way to win to keep his job. Fight Fact: Danny Castillo's two losses have both come by submission, Dustin has 3 wins via submission. Dustin has also finished ALL of his fights.

Play is to PASS

Fredson Paixao (-180) vs. Bryan Caraway (+150)

Fredson is a very decorated BJJ player who is Gracie Barra Black Belt who has won Mundials in Brazil, considered the most prestigious BJJ tournament in Brazil. He has won 4 fights due to submission, however has been somewhat lack luster since he left Brazilian promotion Jungle Fight, he is (1-1 with 1 no contest in the WEC, he originally lost the no contest fight but it was ruled a no-contest after his opponent tested positive for a illegal substance. I think this is Bryan Caraway's fight to win. He has won 10 of his 11 fights via submission, I don't see him submitting Fredson, however I think he will learn from his last fight when he got caught in an armbar by Mark Hominick to have enough effective Ground N Pound but not leave yourself in a position to get subbed. Because of Bryan Caraway's ability to dictate where the fight takes place with his Collegiate Wrestling, I think his best bet is to stand and trade, because the sight of seeing two grapplers stand and trade punches may look something like Damieon Maia vs. Dan Miller back at UFC 109. I think Caraway can use effective striking and then utilize key takedowns to steal rounds and I see a betting upset with the Bryan Caraway win via Decision.

The Play is: Bryan Caraway (+150) risk 3 Units

Ricardo Lamas (-135) vs. Dave Jansen (+105)

Mike Hook is all over Dave Jansen and for good reason

I think they both have outstanding wrestling, I think Dave Jansen's wrestling is just a little bit better. I also think that Jansen has fought better opponents than Lamas. I really like Dave Jansen I will back him

The Play is: Dave Jansen +105 risk 5 Units

Javier Vasquez (-215) vs. Mackens Semerzier (+170)

Mackens is known best for his upset last year over Wagney Fabianno, which Sherdog called the 2009 Upset of the Year. Mackens is only a Purple Belt in BJJ but tapped a highly decorated Black Belt. Two grapplers who both have at least 4 wins or more via submission they both have only 1 win via KO. So I see this fight getting to the ground at some point. I think there solid ground games will balance out, this fight will be won on the feet. I think Mackens wins this fight.

The play is: Mackens Semerzier (+170) Risk 3 Units

Anthony Njokuani (-650) vs. Maciej Jewtuszko (+440)

if you guys have read my write ups you know how I feel about guys who are heavy favorites and not deservingly so. Anthony is coming off a loss vs. Shane Roller where his lack of ground game was clearly exposed. Not much is known about Jewtuszko, even if you don't play on MJ I hope this writeup can talk you off Njoku. I believe only 2-4 fighters deserve to consistently be heavy favorites because they have earned it and the percentage of them winning the fight is more close to the actual odds. I have been able to track down 6 fights of Maciej. I have been very impressed of what I have seen. He has great striking, and he is very comfortable fighting off of his back, 3 of his submission wins came off of his back. I think he is a very live dog and I think he pulls the upset.

Maciej Jewtuszko (+440) wait for this price, I think this price will go up come closer to fight time, if it drops to 420 grab it immediately. + 4 Units.

On to the Main Card

Bart Palaszewski (-260) vs. Zach Micklewright (+200)

I think this fight is very interesting. Micklewright is an undefeated (7-0) fighter out of the Militech Fighting Systems. Bart P, is a decorated grappler out of Team Curran in Chicago. I think Micklewright possesses enough defensive wrestling to work over Bart P. I think Mickewright is a live dog, however I will play a small play on him. Zach wins via TKO 2nd Round

Zach Micklewright +200 risk 2 Units

Scott Jorgensen (-225) vs. Brad Pickett (+175)

This fight has a lot of questions for me. Jorgensen needs a good win to potentially be next in line for WEC bantamweight title. I think Jorgensen has advantages in all areas both stand up and grappling. Jorgensen was a 3 time All Pac 10 wrestling champion. I think there is big gap with the grappling and the fact that with his high level wrestling Jorgensen can dictate where the fight takes place I see him winning this fight either Ground and Pound or Submission.

Play is: Scott Jorgensen (-225) to win 4 Units

Cub Swanson (+285) vs. Chad Mendes (-375)

Cub Swanson is coming off of exactly a 9 month layoff. Chad Mendes trains with Team Alpha Male and is a dominant wrestler who has improving submission skills. Cub Swanson a little more than a year ago was victim to perhaps the greatest knockout in the last 3 years of MMA in my opininon. Never In my life had I seen a Double Flying Knee but Jose Aldo did it, I remember watching going, what did I just see. A normal fighter would have let it effect his next fight, he came out subbed John Franchi and won fight of the night honors back in November. I see Cub Swanson being the stiffest test yet for Chad Mendes who I still consider a newcomer to this sport, I don't think Mendes has faced someone with the BJJ off of his back as Cub Swanson. I see this as a trap play for a lot of people. Immediately they see Mendes trains with Urijah Faber and Alpha Male and is a dominant wrestler. Dominant wrestlers as Chael Sonnen, Brock Lesnar would be able to tell you get caught in submissions. I see this being his kryptonite. I also think, Cub has an effective sprawl to keep the fight standing, Cub has an equal chance to win on his back or standing. I think Cub is the correct play.

The Play is: Cub Swanson +285 right now at 5 Dimes, try to get +300 if you can. Risk 3 Units.

To the Co-Main Event.

Shane Roller (-175) vs. Anthony Pettis (+165)

I really like Shane Roller I gave that out as my first fight play for this card. Nothin has changed in my opinion with him, I think he wins this fight, I think he should be -200. Right now he is -175 @ 5 Dimes, I still like him even at that price. I listed it as a 5 Unit play, however I backed the truck up as Jim Cramer likes to say for more, however I will keep it a 5 Unit play.

Once again The Play is: Shane Roller (-160 to -175) to win 5 Units.

To the Main Event

Joseph Benavidez (+205)vs. (C) Dominic Cruz (-225)

I think if you like Joe Benavidez to wait on getting him or the minimum buy half now and wait, I see that price going up come Main Event time, I see live dogs winning on this card and the public chasing by betting favorites.

Joseph Benavidez fought an outstanding fight vs. Dominic Cruz, however came up on the short end of the Unam Decision. He has since had two fights, winning both very convincingly. He submitted Miguel Torres with a nasty Guilltione Choke after opening him with a vicious Elbow that left him with 20 stiches.

http://tkohub.com/vicious-miguel-torres-cut-pics/

I think Benavidez has learned a lot from the first encounter, the only person to ever beat Cruz is Joe B's training partner Urijah Faber. I see Benavidez winning a 5 round Unam Decision 49-48.

The Play is Joseph Benavidez +205 risk 4 Units.

Remember, my 1 Unit is = 5 bucks, so please adjust, don't go all out with 1 pick, if you are playing this side money don't risk more than you can afford to lose. The reason the Units may look bigger than normal than for most is because all I play is MMA say 95 % of all my plays are MMA.

Good luck

Happy Hunting

BTW please check out Pregame.com which is where I post all of MMA picks as well and become a member.