UFC 119 Breakdown

Feels so good to be back and I got a good feeling about tonight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

First fight of the night I think we might have a bargain on our hands here.

Sean Mccorkle (+170) vs. Mark Hunt (-200)

I really like this play on Sean Mccorkle. He is Undefeated fighter, he's taller, he's got a hell of a reach, and he looked cut at the weigh-ins. Mark Hunt is coming off well over a year layoff, he is past his prime which was in Pride 4-8 years ago when he beat the likes of Mirko Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva. Both Split Decisions. The only reason he took this fight is because he had one fight left on the contract that Zuffa/UFC bought out when they purchased Pride. I don't see much for him. Sean Mccorkle needs to get this fight to the ground. Hunt is a one dimensional Kickboxer. I think Mccorkle has everything to gain and nothing to lose, Hunt has nothing to gain as it is unlikely the UFC will re-sign him no matter if he wins. Sean Mccorckle wins first Submission.

Sean Mccorkle +170 Risk 3 Units

TJ Grant (-175) vs. Julio Paulino (+155)

Pass

Steve Lopez (-105) vs. Waylon Lowe (-115)

Lean to Waylon but I am going to pass

Pat Audinwood (+240) vs. Thiago Tavares (-280)

pass, but sidebar, Audinwood wore Spongebob Squarepants boxers at the weigh-ins. Noteworthy.

Now to the Free Prelims on Spike TV

Joey Beltran (+132) vs. Matt Mitrione (-142)

Its hard to go against Joey Beltran,he's won his first two fights in the UFC vs. Rolles Gracie and vs. Tim Hague. Both at underdog prices respectively of, +750, +200 respectively.

Mitrione has some serious power, but I really like the "Mexicutioner" Joey Beltran in this spot. Joey wins first round KO, +132

Joey Beltran Risk 2 Units +132

CB Dollaway (-290) vs. Joe Doerksen (+260)

Is there a more overrated fighter in the UFC than CB Dollaway. I just don't think Dollaway is all that good. He is very susceptible to submissions and his only two losses have come via submissions. Joe Doerksen, is a wily veteran who has 33 wins by submission. He showed a lot tapping out Tom Lawlor back at UFC 113 in May. I think Doerksen catches Dollaway in a sub in round 1.

Play: Joe Doerksen (+260) Risk 3 Units

My favorite fight of the Night starts the Main Card

Melvin Guillard (-135) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+125)

Melvin Guillard looked absoultely insane in his last fight, I think the change to Greg Jackson's camp has him on a whole new level. I think Melvin Guillard is the play. small play due to variance, to win 1 Unit

Play Melvin Guillard -135 to win 1 Unit

Matt Serra +120 vs. Chris Lytle (-130)

I love Matt Serra in this fight, wow he is good. but I can bring myself to bet on this fight, both are awesome and legit, both have made me money this year, think I will kick back relax and enjoy this re-match from UFC Finale 4 with Serra picking up the split decision victory and one of the best upsets in UFC History over Georges St. Pierre.

Lean to Matt Serra, but will inevitably pass.

Sean Sherk (+190) vs. Evan Dunham (-210)

I think Dunham will show just how slow Sherk has become. Sherk hasn't fought since April 2009 when he got owned by current UFC Champion Frankie Edgar. A year off in MMA is 3-4 off in football, the game speed is just too much to duplicate in real time fights. I think Evan Dunham outstrikes Sherk and wins this fight via Unam Decision.

Evan Dunham (-230) to win 5 Units

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+150)vs. Ryan Bader (-170)

Its amazing what one fight will do to a fighter even with the last name of Nogueira. Although the judges scored his last fight vs. Jason Brillz for him, alot in the MMA community thought he lost that fight. He looked slow, inattentive, and could never establish his rhythm vs. a Wrestler. I guarentee if Nogueira doesn't look flat but still wins a decision vs Jason Brillz, this line is him a favorite -200. Ryan Bader, decorated wrestler from Arizona State, is taking a huge step up from his last win vs. Keith Jardine. I think Nogueira is a worth while play. Nogueira has only been finished once. Nogueira has the better experience, better Boxing, and with working on improving his wrestling defense with Mark Munoz, I think Nogueira can and will outpoint Bader on his way to a Decision victory.

Play: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+150) risk 2 Units

Mirko Cro Cop (+225) vs. Frank Mir (-245)

Personal feelings aside, Everyone loves Frank Mir in this fight. I don't, Frank has a hell of an ego on him. I think he will try and strike with Mirko who is a decorated kickboxer. I want Mirko to resurrect his Left Leg, Cemetery, one last tim to knock Frank Mir's head and hair right off. I don't the whole speel about his eye injury. He looked fine at the weigh-ins. Frank Mir does have power in his hands, he dropped Cheik Kongo with a powerful left hand. I'm not convnced that Frank Mir can get this fight to the ground using wrestling, Cro Cop has a very underrated sprawl, and has been known to use it very efficiently. Mir gets fight to the ground via strikes, or he gets taken down. I don't see either happening in this fight. Cro Cop wins via vintage Left Head Kick KO of th century. You heard it here first.

Mirko Cro Cop (+195) Risk 7 Units. Don't go too crazy.


Happy Hunting