UFC 118 Preview

Currently updating my overall record.

Here are two plays already locked and loaded for Saturday

Nick Osipczak (-140) @ 5 Dimes. vs. Greg Soto +120

In my opinion big mis match.

Nick Osipczak -140 is the play I played it to win 25 Units, I really like the play.

Mario Miranda (+160) vs. Damien Maia (-210)

I like Mario Miranda think he will dominate the stand up game and knock out Damien Maia

Mario Miranda +160 Risk 4 Units

UFC 118 Preview that you demand.

I will do my best to keep the quality up, I am currently going through a pretty nasty cold. Forgive me if there isn't enough detail.

All lines are courtesy of 5Dimes.com also please check out my MMA Betting Blog

http://bettingmma.blogspot.com

Amilcar Alves (+243) vs. Mike Pierce (-285)

No video is available that i can track down for Amilcar Alves, He is (11-1) avenging his only loss last time out back in December via nasty KO (Knee). He is coming off of a 9 month layoff which is a significant drawback. Mike Pierce has only lost 3 times to Nathan Coy, Jon Fitch, and Mark Munoz, notice a trend here??? All three are decorated collegiate wrestlers. Pierce knows how to use stifling wrestling to put people on their butts and dominate them for 3 rounds. Alves does train with current WEC featherweight Champion Jose Aldo Jr. I would be very hard to recommend a play to anyone without having any tape on the guy we are betting on. I will personally play him, and if you want to follow along that is fine. However, I am looking out for those of you who expect me to produce consistent winners, I cannot recommend a play on Amilcar Alves or Mike Pierce., I will play him personally for 2 Units, but not count it as an official play.

The fight itself, Amilcar does have 3 wins via KO and 4 via Sub, 2 of those submissions have come via Armbar which generally involves fighting off your back. I think Amilcar Alves takes this fight via some sort of KO Round 2.

Once again I re-iterate not an official play.

Play: Pass

Nick Osipczak (-200) vs. Greg Soto (+170)

I said yesterday on Gil Alexander's show, Betting Dork that I liked Nick O as high as -200. I see just a complete mismatch on paper and the line I was able to get earlier this week was -140. I am sorry if you missed the boat on this. If you were unable to get it at a smaller price, I recommend a small play on Nick O, I am playing him to win 25 Units @ -140. Best line I see currently is -175 at SBGGlobal

Play: Nick O, if you didn't get him at -140-160 play small say 1-2 Units, I am playing him @-140 to win 25 Units.

Dan Miller (-250) vs. John Salter (+210)

This play really pains me. I like Dan Miller as a fighter, The dude has fought nothing but the best the last three fights in Michael Bisping, Chael Sonnen, and Demian Maia and not one of those three were able to finish him. He is a gamer. I hope I am wrong, but I think Dan Miller's one dimensional ground game will be his downfall. John Salter is a 2007 NAIA Collegiate Champion wrestler, who I believe possesses enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing. I don't believe Salter would want to play into the hands of Miller and take him down but I could be wrong. I think If Salter fights the smart fight, he will pick Dan Miller apart on his feet. I think John Salter is the winner via Unam Decision 30-27 2x, 29-28 1x. Unfortunately with this loss Dan Miller will most likely be released from the UFC. I think Miller needs this as he needs to re-tool his stand up game.

Play: John Salter +210 to win 3 Units.

On to the Spike Preliminary card,

Nick Lentz (+104) vs. Andre Winner (-114)

I am not going to lie, I really like Nick Lentz in this spot. Nick Lentz is a decorated NCAA D1 from University of Minnesota, he trains @ the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy. I think Nik Lentz will use his wrestling fully to his advantage and put Andre Winner on his back for all three rounds. Andre Winner is another one of these British fighters who need to learn takedown defense.

Nik Lentz Decision

Play: Nik Lentz +104 risk 5 Units

Gabe Ruediger (+295) vs. Joe Lauzon (-325)

This fight has nothing but bad blood written all over it. Both of these guys were on The Ultimate Fighter Season 5. Gabe Ruediger missed weight and passed out trying to make weight on the show and ended up being kicked out of the house. He has rattled off 6 straight wins and it would appear to have re-focused his life and MMA as being serious. Joe Lauzon has a lot of problems mentally coming into this fight. His brother Dan has been having trouble with Joe as they had a dispute to where Dan started training no longer with his brother. Gabe played some significant psychological warfare @ the weigh-ins today when he presented Joe with a Cake that said," Sorry for your loss." On TUF show Gabe was eating cake when he heard the announcement that he was fighting in 48 hours. I think Gabe uses his ground game to win this fight on the ground via submission Round 2.

Play: Gabe Ruediger +295 risk 3 Units

Onto the Main Card

Marcus Davis (+180) vs. Nate Diaz (-195)

This fight shows me a lot of intrigue. Marcus Davis ironically,a former pro boxer, boxed on the last card before the Boston Garden was revamped and re-named. I think this is the closest thing Marcus has of being the home town boy considering he is from Bangor Maine. Nate Diaz is talented boxer and even better BJJ brown belt under Cesear Gracie, having said all of that, I think Marcus Davis needs to make this fight a knockdown drag out brawl. Which he is very good at mind you. Marcus Davis can survive on the ground vs. Nate Diaz, but he may not want to set up camp, as Diaz is known for his excellent ground game. I think Marcus Davis' makes this a stand up battle for 3 rounds and eeks out a close 29-28 Decision.

Play: Marcus Davis +180 risk 3 Units

Kenny Florian (-150) vs. Gray Maynard (+140)

this fight intrigues me. I feel like Joey Kanish from Rounders, I know all of the angles for this fight but I honestly don't have any stones to play them. I have counted out the last 8 times there were number #1 contenderships in the UFC for all 5 weight divisions. Recently at UFC 117 there were two fights, Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves and Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson that the winner would be next in line to get a title shot. Both went to a decision. Back in January at UFC 109, it was Chael Sonnen vs. Nate Marquardt for the #1 contendership for the Middlewight Title. Ended in a decision. UFC 114 Rampage Jackson vs. Rashad Evans Number contendership for the Light Heavyweight Title, ended in a................Decision. UFC 113, Josh Koschek vs. Paul Daley number one contendership for 170lb Title ended in a............you guessed it a decision. So did Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy, Clay Guida vs. Diego Sanchez, and Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard. I think it a proven fact that fighters who know if they win, they get a shot at the title fight a little safer and try not to make any mistakes. For what its worth, Gray Maynard has won 7 of his 9 fights due to decision, the last two being split decisions. Kenny Florian has only won 1 fight due to a decision vs. Roger Huerta. As far as a side goes, I hate to go against Kenny Florian or an undefeated fighter in Gray Maynard, I lean to Gray Maynard. I will play both sides to win via Decision

Play: Gray Maynard and Kenny Florian by Decision as Props risk 4 Units each

Maynard via Decision +194 risk 4 Units

Florian via Decision +235 risk 4 Units

no official side play.

Next

Mario Miranda (+190) vs. Demian Maia (-210)

Even with all of the wacky line movement for this fight, I still like Mario Miranda, I think Miranda will win this fight bottom line. Maia is a very great one dimensional grappler, but I think Miranda can control where this fight takes place. Because of this, I think Miranda will pick apart Maia standing, I see this fight ended with Maia being knocked out or him out-pointing Maia and winning a Unam Decision.

Play: Mario Miranda +190, I got him @ +160 earlier this week for 4 Units, I think I will double down on that + 2 Units. 6 more Units @ +185. Total play of 10 Units on Mario Miranda

I also played Mario Miranda 5 Units each on him to win via TKO (KO) and him to win via Decision.

Props:

Mario Miranda to win via T(KO) +440 risk 5 Units

Demian Maia to win via Decision +422 risk 5 Units

Co-Main Event

James Toney (+475) vs. Randy Couture (-560)

Simply this: If Randy Couture fights smart, it will be a very easy night for him, you do not learn great Wrestling takedown defense in 6 months. James Toney looked like a black version of me at the weigh-ins. Fat, got love handles on top of his love handles. I think he's in for the paycheck and nothing more. I am not touching either of these guys straight up wagers.

I am however making a few nice prop wagers on Randy Couture

Play:

Randy Couture to win via T (KO) +196 risk 8 Units

Randy Couture to win via Submission -125 to win 10 Units

Bottom Line: Randy Couture takes this fight to the mat he wins anyway he wishes.

Frankie Edgar (+258) vs. BJ Penn (-285)

Frankie Edgar has a great upset when he defeated BJ Penn back in Abu Dhabi @ UFC 112. I thought he did a good job of stick and moving. I am not going to lie, I still like Frankie Edgar in this spot.

I see him utilizing a similiar gameplan, let's see how well BJ Penn can cut off the ring and not allow Edgar to get those angles.

Frankie Edgar wins via Decision

Play: Frankie Edgar +258 risk 3 Units

Remember my 1 Unit = 5 Bucks

Take it for what its worth.