All lines used are 5dimes.com if you want to sign up let me know and I get a little referal bonus.
First fight of the night is
Danny Castillo (-215) vs. Dustin Poirier (+170)
This is an interesting scrap to start the fight. Danny Castillo trains at Team Alpha Male, with Urijah Faber, Joseph Benavidez and Chad Mendes. A great fight team full of great WEC fighters. This is Dustin's WEC debut he trains with noted UFC fighter Tim Credeur. Tim is very high on Dustin who sports a spotless (7-0) record. Danny Castillo has lost his last two fights to Anthony Pettis and Shane Roller who ironically are fighting for the Number #1 contendership for the 155 title. Dustin is a high level BJJ guy trains with Credeur who is I believe the first BJJ black belt in Louisiana. This fight feels like a pass for me. I don't know just how good Dustin is with his BJJ skills and how much Danny C has learned from his last loss. I think Danny is on his way out with a loss and I think he needs to find a way to win to keep his job. Fight Fact: Danny Castillo's two losses have both come by submission, Dustin has 3 wins via submission. Dustin has also finished ALL of his fights.
Play is to PASS
Fredson Paixao (-180) vs. Bryan Caraway (+150)
Fredson is a very decorated BJJ player who is Gracie Barra Black Belt who has won Mundials in Brazil, considered the most prestigious BJJ tournament in Brazil. He has won 4 fights due to submission, however has been somewhat lack luster since he left Brazilian promotion Jungle Fight, he is (1-1 with 1 no contest in the WEC, he originally lost the no contest fight but it was ruled a no-contest after his opponent tested positive for a illegal substance. I think this is Bryan Caraway's fight to win. He has won 10 of his 11 fights via submission, I don't see him submitting Fredson, however I think he will learn from his last fight when he got caught in an armbar by Mark Hominick to have enough effective Ground N Pound but not leave yourself in a position to get subbed. Because of Bryan Caraway's ability to dictate where the fight takes place with his Collegiate Wrestling, I think his best bet is to stand and trade, because the sight of seeing two grapplers stand and trade punches may look something like Damieon Maia vs. Dan Miller back at UFC 109. I think Caraway can use effective striking and then utilize key takedowns to steal rounds and I see a betting upset with the Bryan Caraway win via Decision.
The Play is: Bryan Caraway (+150) risk 3 Units
Ricardo Lamas (-135) vs. Dave Jansen (+105)
Mike Hook is all over Dave Jansen and for good reason
I think they both have outstanding wrestling, I think Dave Jansen's wrestling is just a little bit better. I also think that Jansen has fought better opponents than Lamas. I really like Dave Jansen I will back him
The Play is: Dave Jansen +105 risk 5 Units
Javier Vasquez (-215) vs. Mackens Semerzier (+170)
Mackens is known best for his upset last year over Wagney Fabianno, which Sherdog called the 2009 Upset of the Year. Mackens is only a Purple Belt in BJJ but tapped a highly decorated Black Belt. Two grapplers who both have at least 4 wins or more via submission they both have only 1 win via KO. So I see this fight getting to the ground at some point. I think there solid ground games will balance out, this fight will be won on the feet. I think Mackens wins this fight.
The play is: Mackens Semerzier (+170) Risk 3 Units
Anthony Njokuani (-650) vs. Maciej Jewtuszko (+440)
if you guys have read my write ups you know how I feel about guys who are heavy favorites and not deservingly so. Anthony is coming off a loss vs. Shane Roller where his lack of ground game was clearly exposed. Not much is known about Jewtuszko, even if you don't play on MJ I hope this writeup can talk you off Njoku. I believe only 2-4 fighters deserve to consistently be heavy favorites because they have earned it and the percentage of them winning the fight is more close to the actual odds. I have been able to track down 6 fights of Maciej. I have been very impressed of what I have seen. He has great striking, and he is very comfortable fighting off of his back, 3 of his submission wins came off of his back. I think he is a very live dog and I think he pulls the upset.
Maciej Jewtuszko (+440) wait for this price, I think this price will go up come closer to fight time, if it drops to 420 grab it immediately. + 4 Units.
On to the Main Card
Bart Palaszewski (-260) vs. Zach Micklewright (+200)
I think this fight is very interesting. Micklewright is an undefeated (7-0) fighter out of the Militech Fighting Systems. Bart P, is a decorated grappler out of Team Curran in Chicago. I think Micklewright possesses enough defensive wrestling to work over Bart P. I think Mickewright is a live dog, however I will play a small play on him. Zach wins via TKO 2nd Round
Zach Micklewright +200 risk 2 Units
Scott Jorgensen (-225) vs. Brad Pickett (+175)
This fight has a lot of questions for me. Jorgensen needs a good win to potentially be next in line for WEC bantamweight title. I think Jorgensen has advantages in all areas both stand up and grappling. Jorgensen was a 3 time All Pac 10 wrestling champion. I think there is big gap with the grappling and the fact that with his high level wrestling Jorgensen can dictate where the fight takes place I see him winning this fight either Ground and Pound or Submission.
Play is: Scott Jorgensen (-225) to win 4 Units
Cub Swanson (+285) vs. Chad Mendes (-375)
Cub Swanson is coming off of exactly a 9 month layoff. Chad Mendes trains with Team Alpha Male and is a dominant wrestler who has improving submission skills. Cub Swanson a little more than a year ago was victim to perhaps the greatest knockout in the last 3 years of MMA in my opininon. Never In my life had I seen a Double Flying Knee but Jose Aldo did it, I remember watching going, what did I just see. A normal fighter would have let it effect his next fight, he came out subbed John Franchi and won fight of the night honors back in November. I see Cub Swanson being the stiffest test yet for Chad Mendes who I still consider a newcomer to this sport, I don't think Mendes has faced someone with the BJJ off of his back as Cub Swanson. I see this as a trap play for a lot of people. Immediately they see Mendes trains with Urijah Faber and Alpha Male and is a dominant wrestler. Dominant wrestlers as Chael Sonnen, Brock Lesnar would be able to tell you get caught in submissions. I see this being his kryptonite. I also think, Cub has an effective sprawl to keep the fight standing, Cub has an equal chance to win on his back or standing. I think Cub is the correct play.
The Play is: Cub Swanson +285 right now at 5 Dimes, try to get +300 if you can. Risk 3 Units.
To the Co-Main Event.
Shane Roller (-175) vs. Anthony Pettis (+165)
I really like Shane Roller I gave that out as my first fight play for this card. Nothin has changed in my opinion with him, I think he wins this fight, I think he should be -200. Right now he is -175 @ 5 Dimes, I still like him even at that price. I listed it as a 5 Unit play, however I backed the truck up as Jim Cramer likes to say for more, however I will keep it a 5 Unit play.
Once again The Play is: Shane Roller (-160 to -175) to win 5 Units.
To the Main Event
Joseph Benavidez (+205)vs. (C) Dominic Cruz (-225)
I think if you like Joe Benavidez to wait on getting him or the minimum buy half now and wait, I see that price going up come Main Event time, I see live dogs winning on this card and the public chasing by betting favorites.
Joseph Benavidez fought an outstanding fight vs. Dominic Cruz, however came up on the short end of the Unam Decision. He has since had two fights, winning both very convincingly. He submitted Miguel Torres with a nasty Guilltione Choke after opening him with a vicious Elbow that left him with 20 stiches.
http://tkohub.com/vicious-miguel-torres-cut-pics/
I think Benavidez has learned a lot from the first encounter, the only person to ever beat Cruz is Joe B's training partner Urijah Faber. I see Benavidez winning a 5 round Unam Decision 49-48.
The Play is Joseph Benavidez +205 risk 4 Units.
Remember, my 1 Unit is = 5 bucks, so please adjust, don't go all out with 1 pick, if you are playing this side money don't risk more than you can afford to lose. The reason the Units may look bigger than normal than for most is because all I play is MMA say 95 % of all my plays are MMA.
Good luck
Happy Hunting
BTW please check out Pregame.com which is where I post all of MMA picks as well and become a member.
Any feedback would be nice, good, but constructive would be really nice as opposed to, just stating a problem.
ReplyDelete