Strikeforce: Houston

Lines are used courtesy of 5Dimes.com, IMO the best book for MMA

Jason Riley (+885) vs. Daniel Cormier (-1350)

For those of you followed me last friday for my KOTC cage, play yes this is the same Daniel Cormier that won the KOTC Heavyweight Title, last friday. Last week we got him around -350------385 wow, I am thinking the oddsmakers got smoked last friday with action on him, for the line to jump 10 dollars, never thought I would hear that. Is it sad that I think the line should be higher? Jason Riley is a tomato can compared to what Cormier faced last week. This is one of the few times where I agree that this line is fairly accurate. I think Cormier wins this one very very easily, however There is no way I will ever recommend someone to lay this kind of wood, in MMA.

Play is: Pass

Jorge Patino (+240) vs. Andre Galvao (-285)

This is an interesting matchup, both are very accomplished BJJ black belts with Andre Galvao winning Pan -AM Gold multiple times. I think Galvao wins this fight on the ground, I think Jorge Patino wins this fight with his stand-up. I am curious to see what Jorge's gameplan is, If I am him, I keep this fight standing, If he keeps it standing he has a shot, I think Galvao is very much a one-trick pony with his BJJ background, I don't think his striking is very crisp.I am thinking a small play on Jorge Pantino is the right side. Jorge is coming off of nearly a year layoff.

Jorge Pantino +240 risk 3 Units

Bobby Lashley (-600) vs. Chad Griggs (+450)

This fight seems like Strikeforce is handing Lashley another tomato can, however Chad Griggs although he hasn't fought in over a year, doesn't seem like the typical can. I see with his stand-up he might give Lashley some problems. I cannot at this time make either side a play. If anything, I would say to sit back and watch the fight, I see Griggs might pull the upset, but I will not make any plays.

Play: Pass

Jorgel Gurgel (+250) vs. KJ Noons (-300)

Jorge Gurgel is coming off over a 9 month layoff, which is significant. However, KJ is coming off of a split decision win over Conor Huen. KJ is a pure striker, he has a significant boxing background and I believe is the only person to finish Nick Diaz. KJ Noons missed weight a 1/4 of a pound, Jorge Gurgel, told him not to worry about it, so he didn't have to re-try again. I think Gurgel knows he wins this fight if it gets to the ground. KJ has not one a single fight on the ground via submission. I think If Jorge fights smart this fight, like he said he would, getting back to his BJJ roots, he can and will win this fight. This might be the livliest dog on the board but I will take Jorge via submission Round 2, either Guilltione Choke or Kimura.

Play: Jorge Gurgel +250 risk 4 Units

Tim Kennedy (+190) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (-225)

TIm Kennedy, is a former Green Beret in the US Army. Jacare has some of the best takedowns for a Brazilian I have seen. I think Tim Kennedy needs to sprawl and brawl to win this fight, I don't see him subbing Jacare, I can see him knocking out Jacare, or out-pointing him on the feet. Jacare gassed very badly last fight vs. Joey Villasenor, I had money on Jacare so that kind of got me worried. I think If this fight goes into the later round, 4 and 5 the advantage will be purely for Tim Kennedy. I think Tim Kennedy knocks out Jacare. In Round 4. to Win the Strikeforce Middleweight Championship

Play is: Tim Kennedy +190 risk 4 Units

Main Event

King Mo Lawal (-400) vs. Rafael Cavalcante (+325)

I think this is a big mismatch on paper, I don't think Cavalcante has enough of wrestling takedown defense to keep the fight standing, not to mention Cavalcante also has had issues in the past with gassing. Because of this I see King Mo Lawal winning this fight via 5 Round Decision to re-tain his Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship. I am waiting on this line, I am hoping to get -350----375, if I can get that range I will play it, if not I will pass.

Play: Stay Tuned.

Good luck and Happy Hunting!!!!