WEC 51 and Bellator 31

Bellator Fighting Championships 31 Breakdown

I chose this one first because there are only 2 fights that I am betting on.

Semi-finals for Bellator Women's 115 tournament

I believe I went undefeated in the first round for these fights (3-0)

Lisa Ward (+395) vs. Megumi Fujii (-495)

This is a re-match from 3 years ago when Megumi defeated Lisa Ward in the first round via Armbar. Lisa Ward is highly accomplished wrestler who uses Ground and Pound to defeat her opponents. I don't see Ward submitting Fujii, she can tag Fujii and if she does we shall see Fujii's chin. Lisa Ward, will avenge this loss and move on to the finals. Lisa Ward wins a Unam Decision (29-28)

Play: Lisa Ward +395 risk 1.4 Units

Jessica Aguilar (+165) vs. Zoila Frausto (-190)

I am a big fan of Zoila's however I don't know how good her ground game is. I think Aguilar can win this fight if she gets it to the ground. She had no trouble the first fight getting it to the ground. I think Aguilar wins the fight. I think the line is off. Zoila missed weight on her first attempt and admitted on her facebook that the weight cut was hard for her. I'm taking Aguilar. Aguilar wins Decision (30-27)

Play: Jessica Aguilar +165 risk 3 Units

WEC 51 Breakdown

Pablo Garza (+115) vs. Tiequan Zhang (-135)

Both are undefeated fighters.

Garza made it to the The Ultimate Fighter 12, was defeated in the qualifying round. He still has an undefeated pro record because those fights are considered amateur fights. Not much is known about Teiquan except that he is the first Chinese fighter in WEC and UFC. What is being reported is that he could be the building block for the Zuffa (UFC and WEC) expansion into Asia more specifically China. Pablo does not look like a pushover, however with the unknown factor with Zhang kind of scares me from betting. Zhang in the two fights I have been able to track down on google, has looked good with a Triangle Choke and TKO victory. I will pass on this fight. Too many unrealiable factors.

Play is: Pass!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Demetrious Johnson (-105) vs. Nick Peace (-115)

Play: Pass

Chad George (+260) vs. Antonio Banuelos (-320)

This is a battle of the fighters who lost to Scott Jorgensen. Banuelos trains with Chuck Liddell. I don't have a strong play on this fight. I think Chad George is a lot better than his first minute submission loss vs. Scott Jorgensen last time out.

Play: Pass

Tyler Toner (+125) vs. Diego Nunes (-145)

the line has dropped while typing this 25 cents on Toner. Which leads me to believe that and add to the point that I think Toner could be the right side. Nunes is a BJJ purple belt under Team Nogueira and Blackhouse Gym. Toner in his last fight showed how vicious his elbows are. Both of these fighters have never been finished, (either Knocked out, or submitted) I can see Toner winning a close decision. I think Toner wins this fight.

Play: Tyler Toner risk 2 Units (+125)

Chris Horodecki (-155) vs. Ed Ratcliff (+135)

I think fight can be an easy fight for Horodecki if he gets the fight to the ground. If decides to stand and trade with Ed Ratcliff he could get tagged by Ed's unique striking. Ed is also coming off of a 9 month layoff. His last fight was a loss to Donald Cerrone back last December. I think Horodecki wins this fight via submission. 2nd Round.

Chris Horodecki (-155) to win 3 Units

Cole Province (+295) vs. Mike Brown (-355)

Its hard to bet against Mike Brown. Who's on a losing skid (2 of his last 3) I think he gets back on track. He looks to be fighting a (6-1) fighter who looks to be a one dimensional submission specialist.

Mike Brown gets back on track with the win. Because of the juice though, I think I will pass

Play: Pass

Leonard Garcia (+180) vs. Mark Hominick (-195)

This is the first fight of the night on Versus @ 8pm CST. Garcia is a very exciting fighter. However he has a tendency to throw caution to the wind and let his hands go. If you have seen his last two fights with George Roop and "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung you will see what I mean. Garcia is trained by Greg Jackson, who is the Yoda of MMA trainers. If he, Greg Jackson, can't get Garcia to listen, then who can? If Garcia fights a smart fight he can win. If he swings for the fences Hominick will pick him apart. Hominick has a good combination of both Striking and effective Grappling: He has 8 wins via (T)KO and 7 wins by submission. I lean towards Hominick but I cannot bet this fight. I see the fight as being way too close to call. Too many unknowns.

Play: Pass

Chan Sung "The Korean Zombie" Jung (-270) vs. George Roop (+230)

I am a huge fan of the Korean Zombie, greatest nickname in MMA? Hell yea. I saw two fights of his before he came into the WEC, and he never gives in. He was armbarred so tight and was able to get out of it. I swear his elbow was dislocated. George Roop is no pushover though. He went toe-to-toe with Leonard Garcia last time out and the fight was scored a controversial draw. Chan Sung is a great striker who has cardio for days, and his grappling while underutilized is very impressive. I think this fight is a toss-up. It could really go either way. I think George Roop will win a very close decision (29-28). Because the fight is a toss-up I will play it small.

Play: George Roop (+230) risk 2 Units

Miguel Angel Torres (-420) vs. Charlie Valencia (+375)

I think Miguel Torres is awesome as a person as a fighter he is amazing. However he has struggled his last to fights being submitted and knocked out respectively. Valencia is entering this fight as this is the biggest fight of his career.

I think Valencia pulls the upset

Play: Charlie Valencia (+375) risk 3 Units

Jamie Varner (-139) vs. Donald Cerrone (+129)

to put it simply I think Varner has gotten into Donald's head with the pre-fight trash talk. I think Varner has better striking and better stand up. I think Varner wins a 3 round decision.

Play: Jamie Varner (-139) to win 3 Units

Manny Gamburyan (+500) vs. Jose Aldo (-600)

Upset Alert. I think Aldo while he is very good, in MMA because the sport is every evolving, no one stays on top for a long time. There are always new challengers. I think Manny Gamburyan has the experience, the grappling, and most importantly the striking power to knock out Aldo.

Aldo has never seriously had his chin tested. Gamburyan because of his frame, has a lot of power behind what he throws. In order for Gamburyan to win, I think he has to knock out Aldo in the first two rounds. He cannot let Aldo fire those hellacious leg kicks that nearly crippled Urijah Faber. Left him looking black and blue on each leg. To give you a perspective of just exactly how bad the leg kicks were on Urijah Faber, he had to be carried to his corner in the last two rounds. He couldn't even walk. Those are Hellacious leg kicks.

Having said that, I think Gamburyan will KO Aldo and become the new WEC Featherweight Champion.

Play: Manny Gamburyan +500 risk 2 Units.

Play it small people. There are no locks in any sport. Play with your head. Enjoy the fights. Check out the WEC though, they very rarely if ever have boring fights. Lot of action with the lower weight classes.

Happy Hunting.

UFC 119 Breakdown

Feels so good to be back and I got a good feeling about tonight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

First fight of the night I think we might have a bargain on our hands here.

Sean Mccorkle (+170) vs. Mark Hunt (-200)

I really like this play on Sean Mccorkle. He is Undefeated fighter, he's taller, he's got a hell of a reach, and he looked cut at the weigh-ins. Mark Hunt is coming off well over a year layoff, he is past his prime which was in Pride 4-8 years ago when he beat the likes of Mirko Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva. Both Split Decisions. The only reason he took this fight is because he had one fight left on the contract that Zuffa/UFC bought out when they purchased Pride. I don't see much for him. Sean Mccorkle needs to get this fight to the ground. Hunt is a one dimensional Kickboxer. I think Mccorkle has everything to gain and nothing to lose, Hunt has nothing to gain as it is unlikely the UFC will re-sign him no matter if he wins. Sean Mccorckle wins first Submission.

Sean Mccorkle +170 Risk 3 Units

TJ Grant (-175) vs. Julio Paulino (+155)

Pass

Steve Lopez (-105) vs. Waylon Lowe (-115)

Lean to Waylon but I am going to pass

Pat Audinwood (+240) vs. Thiago Tavares (-280)

pass, but sidebar, Audinwood wore Spongebob Squarepants boxers at the weigh-ins. Noteworthy.

Now to the Free Prelims on Spike TV

Joey Beltran (+132) vs. Matt Mitrione (-142)

Its hard to go against Joey Beltran,he's won his first two fights in the UFC vs. Rolles Gracie and vs. Tim Hague. Both at underdog prices respectively of, +750, +200 respectively.

Mitrione has some serious power, but I really like the "Mexicutioner" Joey Beltran in this spot. Joey wins first round KO, +132

Joey Beltran Risk 2 Units +132

CB Dollaway (-290) vs. Joe Doerksen (+260)

Is there a more overrated fighter in the UFC than CB Dollaway. I just don't think Dollaway is all that good. He is very susceptible to submissions and his only two losses have come via submissions. Joe Doerksen, is a wily veteran who has 33 wins by submission. He showed a lot tapping out Tom Lawlor back at UFC 113 in May. I think Doerksen catches Dollaway in a sub in round 1.

Play: Joe Doerksen (+260) Risk 3 Units

My favorite fight of the Night starts the Main Card

Melvin Guillard (-135) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+125)

Melvin Guillard looked absoultely insane in his last fight, I think the change to Greg Jackson's camp has him on a whole new level. I think Melvin Guillard is the play. small play due to variance, to win 1 Unit

Play Melvin Guillard -135 to win 1 Unit

Matt Serra +120 vs. Chris Lytle (-130)

I love Matt Serra in this fight, wow he is good. but I can bring myself to bet on this fight, both are awesome and legit, both have made me money this year, think I will kick back relax and enjoy this re-match from UFC Finale 4 with Serra picking up the split decision victory and one of the best upsets in UFC History over Georges St. Pierre.

Lean to Matt Serra, but will inevitably pass.

Sean Sherk (+190) vs. Evan Dunham (-210)

I think Dunham will show just how slow Sherk has become. Sherk hasn't fought since April 2009 when he got owned by current UFC Champion Frankie Edgar. A year off in MMA is 3-4 off in football, the game speed is just too much to duplicate in real time fights. I think Evan Dunham outstrikes Sherk and wins this fight via Unam Decision.

Evan Dunham (-230) to win 5 Units

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+150)vs. Ryan Bader (-170)

Its amazing what one fight will do to a fighter even with the last name of Nogueira. Although the judges scored his last fight vs. Jason Brillz for him, alot in the MMA community thought he lost that fight. He looked slow, inattentive, and could never establish his rhythm vs. a Wrestler. I guarentee if Nogueira doesn't look flat but still wins a decision vs Jason Brillz, this line is him a favorite -200. Ryan Bader, decorated wrestler from Arizona State, is taking a huge step up from his last win vs. Keith Jardine. I think Nogueira is a worth while play. Nogueira has only been finished once. Nogueira has the better experience, better Boxing, and with working on improving his wrestling defense with Mark Munoz, I think Nogueira can and will outpoint Bader on his way to a Decision victory.

Play: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+150) risk 2 Units

Mirko Cro Cop (+225) vs. Frank Mir (-245)

Personal feelings aside, Everyone loves Frank Mir in this fight. I don't, Frank has a hell of an ego on him. I think he will try and strike with Mirko who is a decorated kickboxer. I want Mirko to resurrect his Left Leg, Cemetery, one last tim to knock Frank Mir's head and hair right off. I don't the whole speel about his eye injury. He looked fine at the weigh-ins. Frank Mir does have power in his hands, he dropped Cheik Kongo with a powerful left hand. I'm not convnced that Frank Mir can get this fight to the ground using wrestling, Cro Cop has a very underrated sprawl, and has been known to use it very efficiently. Mir gets fight to the ground via strikes, or he gets taken down. I don't see either happening in this fight. Cro Cop wins via vintage Left Head Kick KO of th century. You heard it here first.

Mirko Cro Cop (+195) Risk 7 Units. Don't go too crazy.


Happy Hunting

UFC Fight Night 22

Brian Foster (-270) vs. Forrest Petz (+230)

This fight seems to be a mismatch on paper. Brian Foster is a highly decorated wrestler who trains out of the HIT Squad camp near St. Louis Missouri. Trains along side Matt Hughes and Robbie Lawler. Forrest Petz has showed a knack for not being able to defend against wrestlers and this continues tomorrow. Brian Foster's improved stand up and good wrestling will dictate where this fight takes place. Because of this I see Brian Foster winning via Unam Decision.

Play is: Brian Foster -270 to win 2 Units

Anthony Waldburger (+170) vs. David Mitchell (-210)

David Mitchell was a play given to me by Mike Hook about how good David Mitchell is. Anthony Waldburger hasn't fought in over a year. Big disadvanatage.

Play: David Mitchell -210 to win 5 Units

Rick Attonito (+160) vs. Rafael Natal (-185)

No Play. Natal is getting way too much love.

Tomasz Drwal (-165) vs. Dave Branch (+145)

Dave Branch I think is the right play in this spot. Branch ran into a Hurricane named Gerald Harris. Branch we will respond well off of his loss. I think he will sub Drwal who has inferior skills on the ground. Not to mention Tomasz is coming off of a nasty heel hook loss to Rousimar Palhares where his knee and ankle got jacked up pretty bad. I can't recommend a play on a guy who might be a little shaky after that last loss.

Play is: Dave Branch +145 risk 3 Units

Jared Hammann (+190) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (+165)

No play pass.

Yves Edwards (+110) vs. John Gunderson (-130)

Lean to Gunderson, Yves Edwards does not fight smart. He could have lost his last fight in Bellator because he wanted to stand and bang against a better standup fighter.

Ross Pearson (-255) vs. Cole Miller (+215)

I like Cole Miller. Think Ross Pearson is a little overrated. I think Cole Miller can get this fight to the ground. If he does, I think he wins this fight.

Play: Cole Miller +215 risk 3 UnitsG

Gleison Tibau +120 vs. Jim Miller -140

Lean to Jim Miller but will pass on this one.

Co-Main Event

Efrain Escudero (-175) vs. Charles Oliveira (+155)

Charles is definitely the play. Efrain missed weight by 4 pounds. Big time angle I love to play. I think Oliveira will want to take Efrain into deep waters in this fight and pick him apart until he knocks out Escudero late in the 2nd Round. Efrain needs to win this fight early. I don't see him winning a decision.

Play: Charles Oliveira +155 Risk 5 Units

Rousimar Palhares (+190) vs. Nate Marquardt (-230)

I like Palhares in this spot. I think Marquardt is overlooking him. If he is not careful Palhares will be looking rip off a limb. Palhares is pretty stocky and short for this weight class so expect him to want to win this one early. I think he will get Nate in a nasty heel hook and I see him tapping out in th 1st Round due to Heel Hook

Play: Rousimar Palhares(+190) risk 5 Units

Happy Hunting.

Bellator 28 Thoughts and Plays

Once again all lines are courtesy of 5 Dimes, sign up with them.

There are 4 listed fights that have lines for tonight.

I have thoughts on all and plays on 2.

Carey Vanier (+160) vs. Rich Clementi (-195)

Rich Clementi has a long record of fighting stretched over 55 fights. Carey Vanier is an up and coming fighter who trains with Greg Jackson's camp. I like Carey Vanier in this fight, I see him taking down Clementi and finishing on the ground with some ground and pound

Play is: Carey Vanier +160 risk 3.2 Units


Georgi Karakhanyan (-250) vs. Anthony Leone (+180)

I see Georgi using superior ground skills to sub Leone via Armbar or Triangle.

Play: No Play

Matt Horwich (+135) vs. Eric Schambari (-165)

I really like Matt Horwich in this spot, he did something no other fighter has been able to do, submit Thales Leites. I think Matt Horwich is the better ground fighter and will execute his gameplan better than Schambari who has at times been really sloppy on the ground.

Play: Matt Horwich +135 risk 3.2 Units

Eric Larkin (-460) vs. Marcus Andrusa (+365)

Good MMA/Boxing Oddsmaker Joey Oddessa thinks this Eric Larkin line should be near -1300. Because of his elite level wrestling. I am in complete agreement. I will take this play to win 10 Units. Eric wins via Unam Decision.

Play: Eric Larkin (-460) to win 10 Units

Happy Hunting